Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?
June 1, 2026 · $101k volume
Why it resolved
No in-person diplomatic meeting between JD Vance and Iran materialized by the May 31 deadline. The market tracked repeated cycles of optimism (May 6: talks "closest to agreement"; May 23: deal "largely negotiated") followed by delays and lack of final approval. Price collapsed from 30¢ to 14¢ on May 24 as Trump's promised announcement failed to materialize, and decayed to 0¢ by resolution as the deadline passed with no meeting having occurred.
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Causal record
Why it resolved, with sources
The decisive cause and the dated, linked news events that drove the outcome.
Reliability read
Was the price honest
Per-market well-priced verdict, Brier score, and when the market first knew.
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